Austria’s achievement in qualifying for the last 16 of Euro 2024 wasn’t unforeseen. Ralf Rangnick’s team entered the tournament in strong form with many predicting they would be competitive in Germany this summer. Few, however, tipped them to finish top of the strongest group in the whole competition.
Having outmaneuvered France, the Netherlands and Poland to top Group D, Austria will now take their place on the favorable side of the knockout round draw. Indeed, Rangnick’s team have true dark horse potential and are quickly providing the most compelling storyline of Euro 2024.
Of course, Austria nearly lost their manager before the tournament even kicked off. Bayern Munich wanted Rangnick to take over after sacking Thomas Tuchel at the end of last season and turned to the 65-year-old as their man for the job. Rangnick spoke with the Bavarian club and was expected to join.
Instead, though, Rangnick stayed put and led Austria into Euro 2024 in the belief that his team could achieve something special. They have already done that by finishing top of their group and beating the Netherlands in one of the most exhilarating matches of the tournament so far. There could be more of that sort of excitement to come.
“To finish top of the group then, that is incredible,” said Rangnick after the 3-2 victory over the Netherlands in Austria’s final group game. “The probability of us winning here and France not winning, if you had a bet you would be a very rich man or woman. We got rewarded for this courageous and energetic performance.”
Courage is something that has defined Austria’s performances at Euro 2024. They are energetic out of possession and press hard from the front. This was evident even in their narrow 1-0 defeat to France when the 2022 World Cup finalists struggled to play through their opponents. Poland and the Netherlands couldn’t cope either.
In possession, Austria attack directly and with purpose. Rangnick has been without his biggest star name for Euro 2024 with David Alaba sidelined through injury, but has emboldened the likes of Marcel Sabitzer and Christoph Baumgartner to be difference-makers in the final third of the pitch.
Sabitzer, usually a central midfielder, has been deployed closer to goal with the Borussia Dortmund player given the freedom to get into the box and pose a goal threat. He rewarded Rangnick for that decision against the Netherlands, when he finished past Bart Verbruggen at the near post to win the game. He has been sharp in the attacking third.
Baumgartner has a goal and an assist in three appearances and has given Austria genuine threat and dynamism through the centre of the pitch with his driving runs and determination to get into the opposition area. Poland in particular struggled to handle the directness of the 24-year-old in the attacking phase.
There are dark horses at every major tournament. At the 2022 World Cup, Morocco made an unexpected run to the semi-finals. At Euro 2016, it was Wales who provided a shock by reaching the final four. However, these teams usually play a certain way – compact and conservative. Austria, on the other hand, are playing an entertaining and dynamic style of soccer not usually seen in the international game.
“I have said months ago, I don’t think it is very probable to win the Euros,” Rangnick said despite Austria finishing top of their group, playing down their chances of pulling off the biggest shock at the Euros since Greece in 2004. “If someone asked me if I can completely rule it out, it is still not very likely. The lads want to go as far as possible.”
When Rangnick looks at the draw his team have, though, he might change his tune. Austria have landed in the weaker half of the bracket with France, Germany and Spain all in the other side. On the basis of what was produced in the group stage, there’s no reason to downplay Austria’s chances. They deserve to be mentioned among the best teams at Euro 2024.
