A long and winding road lay behind us as we sit on the precipice of NFL Week 18. Three head coaches were left behind along the way, as were four coordinators. Five playoff berths remain up for grabs. That includes a true win-and-in matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night.
12 teams enter Week 18 with nothing but pride or draft position at stake. The Chicago Bears, with a grateful nod to the Carolina Panthers, already own the top pick on April 25 in Detroit.
Watch Week 18 of the NFL on Fubo!
Here’s what we know entering Week 18:
- The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have clinched the No. 1 seeds in their conferences and get Wild Card Weekend off.
- The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions claimed division titles and earned home games for said Wild Card Weekend.
- The Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams also booked Wild Card Weekend dates of some sort.
As the postseason picture comes into focus over the course of Saturday and Sunday, these are the five storylines we’re watching:
5. Black Monday speculation
With Josh McDaniels (Raiders), Frank Reich (Panthers) and Brandon Staley (Chargers) already off the board, Black Monday still looms large. Black Monday, of course, is the annual ritual wherein owners of non-playoff teams hit the “lather, rinse, repeat” button on their organizations.
The firing of head coaches sets in motion the hiring of new coaches. Or, in some cases, the recycling of old coaches.
Among the likely suspects, at least one gained reprieve from the chopping block in a ritual akin to the pardoning of a turkey before Thanksgiving. New York Jets coach Robert Saleh, along with general manager Joe Douglas, received another year, according to a Christmas Eve report from the New York Post.
However, bleak Mondays may be in store for:
- Ron Rivera (Washington Commanders): A defensive coach who took four years building one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Throw in new ownership and the box-packing feels inevitable.
- Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints): If nothing else, Allen proved his ineptitude with the then-Oakland Raiders wasn’t a fluke. The most talented roster in the NFC South produced an 8-8 record and trails the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose highest-paid player goes by the name “Dead Money” (almost $81.5 million).
- Arthur Smith (Atlanta Falcons): Perhaps, if everything falls into place, Smith gets a reprieve. All he needs is a win over the Saints and the Panthers to beat Tampa B … never mind.
Mike Vrabel of the Tennessee Titans, Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears and Brian Daboll of the New York Giants likely get another year.
Then we get to the hoodie-wearing elephant in the room.
4. The end of the Bill Belichick era in New England
According to reports, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft decided in November that Sunday’s season finale against the Jets (fittingly enough) closes the book on Bill Belichick’s 24-year reign with the Patriots.
Some of us old enough to remember can recall the contentious hiring of Belichick by the Patriots. Elevated by a contractual clause to head coach of the Jets when Bill Parcells resigned on Jan. 3, 2000, Belichick resigned the same day and wound up in New England. The Patriots sent a first round pick to Gang Green for the right to hire Belichick.
New England is 29-37 in the post-Tom Brady era. Coaches, so the long-standing belief tells us, are hired to be fired.
Someone (Alex Spanos of the Chargers, Carolina’s David Tepper, Josh Harris of the Commanders) will throw obnoxiously large piles of cash in Belichick’s direction. But the Hoodie turns 72-years-old in April. The fastball might already be gone.
3. The NFC South title
If the Buccaneers win at Carolina on Sunday, they claim a third straight NFC South championship and fourth consecutive playoff berth. That would match the longest streak in franchise history (1999-2002).
Should the Panthers achieve an upset, then the winner of the Saints-Falcons game in New Orleans gets the crown. Or the Saints get it with a tie and a Carolina victory.
Tampa Bay pulling it off with the most dead money in the NFL while reviving the earning prospects of quarterback Baker Mayfield makes as compelling a storyline as any.
2. The other playoff battles
The one true win-and-in game on the schedule comes in prime time when Houston visits the Colts on Saturday. The victor finishes 10-7 with no worse than a wild-card spot. Should the Jacksonville Jaguars lose at Tennessee on Sunday, either the Texans or Indianapolis celebrate a wildly unlikely division title. These teams finished last season a combined 7-25-2, so this season already counts as a success for both.
The Pittsburgh Steelers don’t control their own fate. A three-game losing streak to start December took that away from them. Now 9-7, the Steelers look to ride Mason Rudolph to a victory at Baltimore on Saturday and then hope for:
- A Buffalo Bills loss to the Dolphins or
- A Jaguars loss to or tie with the Titans or
- A Houston-Indianapolis tie
There are two other scenarios. If Pittsburgh and Baltimore tie, the Steelers are in with a Jacksonville loss and a Texans-Colts result that is not a tie.
And there lies one road to the postseason even with a loss to the Ravens. It just takes the Titans beating the Jags, the Denver Broncos winning at Las Vegas and a Texans-Colts non-tie.
1. The Kings of the Easts
Should the Cowboys win at Washington on Sunday afternoon, they earn their second NFC East title in three years. Philadelphia, once 10-1, have lost four of their last five games and can only take its second straight division championship with a win at the Giants and help from the Commanders.
Some old heads still point to Dallas-Washington as one of the NFL’s great rivalries because in the 1970s and early 1980s it was. But the teams haven’t had winning records in the same season since 2016 and the year was 2007 the last time both were in the playoffs. Rivalries need relevance and they haven’t had it for awhile now.
Give Dallas credit: With the exception of a very bad, awful, terrible day against the Arizona Cardinals back in September, it has been rock solid beating teams it should beat.
Meanwhile, Buffalo gets a fourth straight AFC East crown with a win at Miami to close the season on Sunday night. The Bills have won five of six since falling to 5-5 with a loss at home to the Broncos on Nov. 13. Meanwhile, the Dolphins rue their stumble at home to the Titans on Dec. 11.
Buffalo’s 48-20 dismantling of the Marine Mammals to open October gives it the tiebreaker edge should both teams finish 11-6. In that scenario, Miami falls all the way to the sixth seed and goes to Kansas City for a Wild Card playoff in a rematch of their Nov. 5 loss in Germany.
But if the Bills lose, they need losses by Pittsburgh or Jacksonville to make a fifth straight postseason appearance. Or, of course, the ever-popular Houston-Indianapolis tie or a tie of their own with the Dolphins.
