The most hopeful time in the NBA season for every team is right now. Just before the season starts each team holds that hope because of the NBA Draft, free agency and preseason play. Every team from the defending champion Denver Nuggets to the worst team in the league last season, the Detroit Pistons, are all looking to be better than last year. That starts with a number, the over/under win total that projects how good a team could be this season by the oddsmakers. Every team will try to best the odds makers projections and avoid being a good bet for the under this season.
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In recent history, four of the last five champions came into the season with an over/under win total that they surpassed. The Toronto Raptors (2019), Los Angeles Lakers (2020), Golden State Warriors (2022) and the Denver Nuggets (2023) all went over in the regular season win total, with just the Milwaukee Bucks (2021) going under in projected win totals.
Looking at the Over/Under projections for teams in title contention this season, Denver (53.5), Milwaukee (54.5), Boston Celtics (54.5) and the Phoenix Suns (51.5) will have to have big seasons.
The favorites to win the NBA Championship this year are Denver (+450), who is looking to go back-to-back, Milwaukee (+600), who is seeking a second title in three years, Phoenix (+600), who is in search of its first championship, and Boston (+450), who hoping to win its 18th championship.
Looking at the rest of the league, here are some quality over/under bets this season:
Indiana Pacers (38.5) OVER
Last season Indiana won 35 games, going 28-28 in the 56 games that Tyrese Haliburton started. The team went 7-19 without the star point guard. Haliburton is ready for another jump this season, with newcomers Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin and rookie Jarace Walker expected to make this team even more competitive.
Cleveland Cavaliers (50.5) UNDER
This season Cleveland will be without Jarrett Allen, who was the anchor for its defense to start the season. Cleveland added wing depth and shooting with Georges Niang and Max Strus, improving the offense and taking away from its defense for a team that surprised the league with 51 wins last season.
Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5) OVER
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City to the brink of the play-in tournament last season without any length on the roster. Now the team welcomes back Chet Holmgren, who has looked terrific in the preseason, along with fellow playmakers Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey and a young roster that is ready for another leap this season.
Philadelphia 76ers (49.5) UNDER
There is too much drama around Philadelphia for the team to be in a position to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The bottom of the conference is getting better and with James Harden in limbo, taking the under on a team like Philadelphia is a safer bet than the over after the team won 54 games last season.
Toronto Raptors (36.5) OVER
One of the more disappointing teams in the NBA last season was Toronto, who never quite found a rhythm or mix that worked all season. After acquiring center Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, Toronto went 15-11 in 26 games. With Poeltl filling the lane and Denis Schroder coming in at point guard, the wing trio of Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby have the opportunity to thrive and be either as good or better than their win total (41) from last season.
A few other overs to consider include the Dallas Mavericks (43.5), Portland Trail Blazers (28.5), Sacramento Kings (44.5) and Golden State Warriors (48.5).
Some under decisions to bet on could include the Charlotte Hornets (31.5), the Memphis Grizzlies (45.5) and the Utah Jazz (35.5).
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