As the NBA season gets started there is no time like the present to look ahead to who is going to win each of the individual awards this season. Here, I’m looking at Coach of the Year, Most Improved, Rookie, Sixth Man, Defensive Player and MVP. Let’s get started with looking at my winners for the 2023-2024 NBA Awards starting with the biggest award of them all.
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Most Valuable Player: Jayson Tatum (+800 odds per DraftKings)
Only six players in the history of the NBA have won the MVP winning less than 50 games in the regular season. That is the starting line in projecting an MVP. After finishing the last two seasons in the top six of the MVP vote, first-team All-NBA both of those seasons, leading the league in total points last year and taking the All-Star Game MVP (scoring 55 points) it is hard to argue with Tatum as the pick here. There are several great candidates, but most have already won an MVP and this league likes to look for the new. In fact, the next three on my ballot are two-time league MVPs. Voting this year might go the way of the 2023 WNBA MVP with the closest margin in the history of the league, which is fitting for a league that is more talented than it has ever been.
Rest of the Vote: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry and Devin Booker
Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo (+900 odds per DraftKings)
Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. That has been Adebayo in the DPOY voting every season for four straight years as finished fifth, fourth, fourth and fifth. In each of those seasons, Adebayo has anchored a top-10 defense by nearly every metric you can consider. This season the Miami Heat will need to rely even more on their defense with a very weak roster of playmakers.
Rest of the Vote: Draymond Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis
Sixth Man of the Year: Chris Paul (+2000 odds per DraftKings)
The narrative here is too perfect. Legendary guard comes off the bench, gives a contender a boost and as long as Paul stays healthy and the team is in the top six of the Western Conference, this is a slam dunk. Awards voters love narratives, they love stories and Paul has the opportunity to be one of the best this season.
Rest of the Vote: Bobby Portis, a Celtic (Al Horford?), Immanuel Quickley, Norman Powell and Malik Monk
Most Improved Player of the Year: Austin Reaves (+1400 odds per DraftKings)
Predicting this award is effectively saying: Who do you think will make the biggest statistical jump (and that the national voters care about)? Barring injuries, this feels like a slam dunk before the season even begins. Reaves gained the trust of LeBron James last season and became the team’s third option with the starters and go-to option with bench units. This season Reaves will likely take a massive jump up from 13.0 points, 3.4 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game to likely becoming a 20+ point scorer this year on a contending team.
Rest of the Vote: Jonathan Kuminga, Alperen Sengun, Tyrese Maxey and Mikal Bridges
Rookie of the Year: Chet Holmgren (+250 odds per DraftKings)
Traditionally this award goes to the rookie with the most opportunity and statistical volume. That is often a guard or wing who has the ball in their hands, but this year the situation for Holmgren is too perfect. He walks on the court as the team’s best and only big man with offensive juice, alongside three of the best young playmakers in the league. Plus, Holmgren plays defense so he will be at the top or very close in total rebounds, blocks and steals. As long as Holmgren is healthy all year, he will also be near the top in points, shooting percentage and three-pointers on a team that has the potential to be top six seed in the Western Conference.
Rest of the Vote: Victor Wembenyama, Scoot Henderson, Keyonte George and Ausar Thompson
Coach of the Year: Michael Malone (+900 odds per DraftKings)
The flowers for the Denver Nuggets will continue into this season with Michael Malone winning his first Coach of the Year award. Is this partly narrative for the totality of his coaching career, winning the championship last year and the recent passing of his father? Sure, but virtually every award is narrative-driven. Most award winners get trophies for their second or third-best efforts, which might be the case here, but that doesn’t mean it is also not earned.
Rest of the Vote: Mark Daigneault, Taylor Jenkins, Rick Carlisle and Tom Thibodeau
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