NFL Week 17 brought more clarity to the playoff picture. The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers clinched first round byes in the AFC and NFC, respectively. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams punched their postseason tickets.
Three 9-7 teams vie for the AFC South title, with the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans set to go head-to-head next weekend. The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, visit the Tennessee Titans.
In the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a chance to clinch. Entering Week 18, the Bucs and New Orleans Saints sit deadlocked at 8-8. The 7-9 Atlanta Falcons need dominoes to fall the right way to win the division.
With much to overreact to in NFL Week 17, we start here:
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5. A wild card team with a losing record is a real possibility
While not unheard of to have a division champion with a sub .500 record (Tampa Bay turned the trick just last season), a team with a losing record has never to this point earned a wild card berth.
Though unlikely, the NFC could produce the first based on how thing shake out next week. The Green Bay Packers hold the No. 7 spot at 8-8, tied with New Orleans and the Seattle Seahawks. Should all three lose next weekend, not-even-mediocre gets rewarded with a postseason bid.
Given the rabid audience enjoyed by the NFL, there’s likely to be few complaints if an 8-9 team plays the No. 2 seed on Wild Card Weekend. But from the perspective of crowning a legitimate champion, an 8-9 non-division champion getting a seat at the table seems counter-intuitive at best.
4. Philadelphia Eagles in free fall at the worst time
The Philadelphia Eagles entered NFL Week 17 with the weakest closing schedule in the NFL. Beat the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants, claim the NFC East title and have a shot at the top seed in the NFC.
Instead, the Cardinals pulled off a last-minute comeback victory and Philadelphia is on the wrong side of the tiebreaker with the Cowboys in the division. The embattled Eagle defense surrendered 449 yards to Arizona, which owns a bottom-10 offense.
With four losses in five games, Philly’s freefall from 10-1 and the best record in the NFL has been as spectacular as it has been precipitous.
This team either (a) peaked too soon or (b) couldn’t successfully mask its weaknesses indefinitely. For the record, option (b) makes more sense. The Eagles surrendered more than 400 yards of offense in three of its wins, including 505 in an overtime victory over the Buffalo Bulls on Nov. 26.
Philadelphia has clinched no worse than the No. 5 seed and can still win the NFC East with a win and a Dallas loss to the Washington Commanders. But another Super Bowl run? That feels like a pipe dream for the Eagles.
3. Miami Dolphins laid an egg on a big stage
The Miami Dolphins went to M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday with the top seed in the AFC on the line against the Baltimore Ravens. One 56-19 detonation later and the Dolphins need to win against the red-hot Buffalo Bills on Sunday to win their first AFC East title since 2008.
The game featured the classic matchup of the highest-scoring offense against the defense best at preventing points. Score one for the defense, as Baltimore created three turnovers, held Miami to 375 total yards and held the Dolphins to more than 10 points below their season average in scoring.
For some season, coach Mike McDaniel still had starters on the field down by 30 points inside of five minutes to play. That decision likely cost the Dolphins linebacker Bradley Chubb for the rest of the season. Chubb left on a cart with 3:05 remaining with a knee injury.
Buffalo’s four-game winning streak put it in position to win a fourth straight AFC East crown. Or the Bills might miss the postseason entirely.
A win at Miami clinches the division title. But a loss coupled with wins by Jacksonville and the Pittsburgh Steelers sends Buffalo home. The Bills will at least know their playoff fate by kickoff on Sunday night.
2. A perfect 10 for the San Francisco 49ers
All the dominoes fell into place for the San Francisco 49ers last weekend. It started with Dallas’ controversial win on Saturday night, continued with a 27-10 road victory over the Washington Commanders and culminated with Arizona’s stunner at Philadelphia.
With all that, the 49ers clinched the top seed in the NFC. It’s the 10th time San Francisco earned the honor, the most of any team in NFL history.
Four of the 49ers’ five Super Bowl wins came from the first post on the playoff gate, with the lone exception coming after the 1988 season. That year, San Francisco had to win the NFC Championship at frigid Soldier Field.
It was a solid bounceback for the Niners, who were blown out at home in a showdown with the Ravens on Christmas night. With dominant victories over both the Eagles and Cowboys, the 49ers are the class of the NFC. Earning the top seed reflects that.
1. NFL officiating: Incompetence or something more insipid?
Referee Brad Allen’s crew, authors of several questionable calls that hurt the Chiefs in a Monday night loss to the Packers in Week 13, was hard at work again on Saturday night.
The Lions cooked up a two-point conversion play involving an offensive lineman aligned as an eligible receiver. Coach Dan Campbell said he explained the play to the officials before the game.
The linemen in question insist they reported (or did not report) correctly. Quarterback Jared Goff ensured the correct eligible lineman (Taylor Decker) reported. But Allen is just as insistent that it was Dan Skipper, not Decker, who reported as eligible.
