In the second of the two College Football Playoff matchups on Monday, No. 2 Washington (13-0, 10-0 Pac-12) takes on No. 3 Texas (12-1, 9-1 Big 12) in the 90th playing of the Sugar Bowl at the Superdome in New Orleans. Washington is in its second-ever College Football Playoff and is trying to get to the modern National Championship Game for the first time, while this is Texas’ first appearance overall in the CFP.
This matchup figures to be a shootout. Washington had the 10th ranked offense in the nation this year, averaging 37.7 points per game. Texas wasn’t far behind, ranked 16th at 36.2 points per game. The combined 74 points goes well above the total number of 62.5 that is being posted by most games.
Washington is led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr., a projected first round pick who won the Maxwell Award this year. Penix is an experienced, gutsy, big-armed quarterback that is a threat to put the ball on a receiver at any point on the field, at any situation in the game.
The receivers around Penix certainly help as well. Rome Odunze is another projected first round pick who was one of the leading receivers in the nation this year. A well rounded player he’s a threat at all three levels, but mostly with the deep ball. Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan are more chain movers.
That strong passing game is supplemented by a ground-and-pound rushing attack. 6-foot, 215-pound running back Dillon Johnson came on strong late in the season and is a tough player to tackle. He runs behind an offensive line featuring two more projected NFL draft picks at the tackle positions – left tackle Troy Fautanu and right tackle Roger Rosengarten.
On the other side, Texas’ offense is quarterbacked by Quinn Ewers, who has had an up-and-down season. He started on a high note by beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but then struggled in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma before suffering a shoulder injury that cost him multiple weeks.
This playoff is a big spot for Ewers, who is a big-arm, athletic quarterback sharing some traits with Penix. Currently projected as a Day 2 pick, if Ewers doesn’t do enough during the playoff to prove he’s a first rounder, he could end up going back to school for his redshirt junior year.
There’s an argument to be made that the weapons at Ewers’ disposal are better than his counterpart’s in Washington. While Oduzne is probably the best overall pass catcher in this game, Texas has the depth.
Wide receivers Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell, as well as tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders are all projected to be Top 150 picks. Worthy is a speedster who is a nightmare to get a hold of in the open field. Mitchell is more of a traditional ‘X’ receiver, jump-ball player, while Sanders wins with raw athleticism at tight end. Third receiver Jordan Whittington is also a player to watch as a chain mover.
The Longhorns rushing attack is in an interesting spot. Pro Football Focus ranked Texas as the second-best run-blocking offensive line in the nation this year. However, the team will be without starting running back Jonathon Brooks, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the regular season finale.
Without Brooks, the Longhorns turned to CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue in the Big 12 Championship. Their team rate of 5.0 yards per carry was up from their regular season number, but that was heavily skewed by a 57-yard run from third string running back Keilan Robinson, coming in the fourth quarter of a blowout on one of his just four carries.
Could that running game be the difference in this one? Certainly. All in all it feels like Washington comes into this game with more offensive firepower overall. But there is one more element to take into account – defense.
In a generally offensive-driven conference this year, Texas allowed 17.5 points per game, which ranked 12th nationally. Washington – playing a tougher schedule, allowed 23.6 points per game and ranked 51st.
Washington’s defense has the star power with players like defensive ends Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui, linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshi, and cornerback Jabbar Muhammad. Texas’ defense has some notable names as well – mainly the defensive tackle combo of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, but its real strength has been elevating above the sum of its parts.
Can the Huskies elevate again on Monday with a month to prepare for what is the best offense they’ll see all year? Or will Penix drag his team to another nail-biting win? For all the X’s and O’s it’s very possible this game comes down to one simple factor – which team has the ball last.
